今天写个编外，跟大家具体谈谈怎么分析问题。目的是为了让大家学会在互联网的知识海洋中如何分辨何处是漩涡，何处是暗礁，何处是家园。在知识爆炸的今天，没有人能够一一回答大家的每一个疑问，反驳大家看到的每一篇文章，因此学会自己发现问题，分析问题，解决问题才能趋利避害。
为了达成这个目的，我借用一个朋友发给我的一篇文章来做个例子，和大家一起来分析。每个人都可以得出自己的结论，请大家探讨的是如何分析，而不是具体的结论。
文章在这里：http://www.shirleys-wellness-cafe.com/vaccines.htm
文章非常长，为了便于阅读，我不转抄原文了，只摘抄我要分析的段落或者句子。如果这样的摘抄导致了断章取义，绝非我的本意，请大家指出来。好，下面我来看看这篇文章。
首先，这篇文章发表在这个网站：http://www.shirleys-wellness-cafe.com/index.html
这是个什么网站呢？首页就开宗明义做了说明：“Shirley's Wellness Cafe is an educational website that promotes holistic health for humans and their animals”
什么叫holistic health呢？wiki上是这么说的：“Holistic health is a concept in medical practice upholding that all aspects of people's needs, psychological, physical and social should be taken into account and seen as a whole. As defined above, the holistic view on treatment is widely accepted in medicine. A different definition, claiming that disease is a result of physical, emotional, spiritual, social and environmental imbalance, is used in alternative medicine.”（http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holistic_health）翻译过来就是，这是一种把人的需求，精神，生理和社会的作为一个整体来考虑的医学实践。另外一个定义用在替代医学中，是这样定义的：这个holistic health宣称疾病是由生理的，心理的，灵魂的，社会的，环境的不平衡产生的。。。这个听起来是不是很熟悉？好像是老中医披上马甲吗？这样的网站上的文章，在我看来是zero credibility。
好现在来看看这篇文章。
通看全文。。。没找到任何可以track的reference。就是说，没有一篇（一篇都没有!）可以找到的文献索引。没有一篇发表的科学研究，没有一篇正式的流行病调查，没有一篇完整的实验研究。全部没有。这个。。。zero credit。
好了，来看看具体的内容。
“Bernard Rimland, Ph.D., has provided the statistics that, in their experience, from 50 to 60% of parents with autistic children believe that their children were damaged by vaccines.”这是引用了一段某个PhD在国会的证词，说根据这个博士的“经验”，50%-60%的自闭症孩子的父母相信他们的孩子被疫苗伤害。但是这里面漏洞实在是太多了。首先这个证词来源不明，不知道真的假的。第二，这个仅仅是证词，却没有发表。第三，这个仅仅是这个博士自己的经验。第四，这个50%-60%仅仅是家长这样认为而已。第五，不知道这个50%-60%是多少中得出的估计。第六，这个估计说是damaged by vaccine，却不说如何damage。典型的误导读者。想让大家以为说的是caused by vaccine。仅仅一句话就这么多错误和漏洞，真是奇迹。竟然用来做这篇文章的开头引言。。。zero credit。
紧接着一句话：“In our own office we have seen many autistic children in recent years, and our own experience has been very similar, many parents reporting that deterioration of their children took place following vaccines.”这句话也一样的漏洞百出。第一，“many”这个词实在是没有任何意义，10个人可以叫many，1000人也可以叫many。既然是自己的office，为啥不能统计一下？为啥不给出具体数据？原因很简单，可能真的就是10个，也可能是统计了，发现跟疫苗无关，不好意思说。第二，又是parents reporting。Parents都report了，为啥这个医生不做流行病调查？做了为啥不发表？全世界做了那么多大规模的流行病调查统计，我都发了，他的研究在哪里？第三，parents要是能知道病因还要大家研究个啥啊？第四，我一而再，再而三地强调，时间上的先后次序仅仅是因果关系的必要条件，不是充分条件。Deterioration following vaccine，仅仅是建立二者关系的必要条件，还需要其他条件才能成为充分条件。才能证明二者的因果关系。这样说应该非常明白了。。。这个。。。到这里还是zero credit。
好，引言结束。看正文。Sorry，文章实在太长了，没法一句一句分析。但是基本全部不靠谱。我只挑一些比较有代表性的段落来看一下。
“If children receive all recommended vaccines, they will receive 2,370 times the "allowable safe limit" for mercury in the first two years of life (as if there is such a thing as a "safe" amount of a toxic poison). Yet, even after Congressional hearings instigated by Congressman Dan Burton (whose own grandchild became autistic after receiving vaccines) resulted in the FDA requesting (not ordering) vaccine manufacturers to remove this toxic heavy metal from their products, mercury is still present in many vaccines.”首先，没有给出reference，这个2，370倍不知道怎么来的。我点了后面的链接，里面也没有给出reference这个safe limit的来源。好吧只会自己找。这里有个链接：http://www.nutraingredients.com/Regulation/UN-committee-reduces-safety-limits-for-mercury。是关于UN调整汞的摄入上限的新闻。里面说道：“in order to sufficiently protect the developing foetus, the PTWI has been reduced to 1.6 µg per kg body weight per week…. This new recommendation changes the prior recommendation for a dietary limit of 3.3 µg per kg body weight per week.”就是说，这个上限的规定是按照单位体重单位时间来规定的。。。这个就奇怪了。疫苗不是每天打的，不知道这个2370倍是怎么从单位时间算出来的。这个congressman也很有问题，http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/congress/members/photos/228/B001149.jpg。这是wiki上关于他的一段：
Burton has been an outspoken critic of what he terms the failure of government to determine the cause of an alleged autism epidemic. His grandson became autistic a few days after receiving nine inoculations. "My only grandson became autistic right before my eyes – shortly after receiving his federally recommended and state-mandated vaccines."[14]
In an October 25, 2000, letter to the Department of Health and Human Services, acting in his role as Chairman of the House Committee on Government Reform, Burton asked the agency's director to get the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to recall all vaccines containing the preservative Thimerosal. "We all know and accept that mercury is a neurotoxin, and yet the FDA has failed to recall the 50 vaccines that contain Thimerosal," Burton wrote, adding "Every day that mercury-containing vaccines remain on the market is another day HHS is putting 8,000 children at risk."[15]
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did not agree that vaccines containing mercury caused autism, and the US FDA refused to ban the vaccines. Most manufacturers removed the preservatives from their vaccines anyway, with no resulting decrease in autism rates.[16]
Burton continues to maintain a page on his Congressional website called House.gov "Autism" which includes his speeches, transcripts from hearings, and newspaper articles on the relationship of autism and vaccines.
这其中提到的14的原文在这里：http://web.archive.org/web/20060316141931/http://ccmadoctors.ca/opening_statement_chairman_dan_b1.htm。跟其他很多父母一样，他因为自己的孩子得了自闭症所以choose to相信自己的判断，不相信无数的研究和调查。但由于他是议员，因此有了立法特权，仅此而已。
这个16在这里：http://www.seattlepi.com/local/314054_autism03.html。原文说：“Vaccines with thimerosal, such as flu vaccines, include a tiny amount of a chemical known as ethyl mercury -- about as much mercury as found in any serving of tuna today. Studies done in Europe have found no decline in autism rates since thimerosal was removed from vaccines.”但是也没有给出具体的数据来源。
其次，那个“…FDA requesting (not ordering) vaccine manufacturers to remove this toxic heavy metal from their products, mercury is still present in many vaccines”也没有数据来源。人家都说了，没有mercury，他非说有，可是又没有证据，如何采信呢？这句话是典型的propaganda。其实这句话完全可以说成：“…FDA requesting (not ordering) vaccine manufacturers to remove mercury from their products, but it is still present in many vaccines。”反复重复toxic heavy metal不是为了强调它很毒，而是为了吸引你的注意力，加强在读者头脑中toxic heavy metal和vaccine的暗示性联系，用二者不断重复一起出现让读者听到一个就自己想的另一个，形成心理暗示。这种行文技巧是极端分子常用的宣传手段，对普通老百姓，非常有效。请大家警惕。
“Bart Classen, a Maryland physician, published data showing that diabetes rates rose significantly in New Zealand following a massive hepatitis B vaccine campaign in young children, and that diabetes rates also went up sharply in Finland after three new childhood vaccines were introduced.”这个问题我在乙肝疫苗一章中已有讨论，不再赘述。简单来说，这个假说被几个研究所否认，而这个Bart Classen自己就是靠卖假药过日子的。
“The FDA has been reviewing reports of abnormal behavior and other brain effects in more than 1,800 children who had taken the flu medicine Tamiflu. The symptoms have included convulsions, delirium or delusions, and in Japan, five deaths have been reported in children under 16 as a result of neurological or psychiatric problems. There have also been nine deaths among older teens and adults, attributed to neuropsychiatric problems or brain infections. Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg MD - "Swine flu is not very different from normal flu. On the contrary if you look at the number of cases it is nothing compared to a normal flu outbreak.” Swine Flu Vaccination Poses Serious Threat to Your Health.”不知道这段话想说什么。感觉是乱放箭，打哪儿指哪儿了。可能作者太激动了，有点条理不清。先说tamiflu有副作用，这不是废话吗？谁没事儿吃tamiflu？吃tamiflu的不都是得猪流感的吗？为啥死了5个人都是吃tamiflu造成的不是猪流感造成的？那么多没吃tamiflu的不也一样有死人？还死得更多。然后说swine flu没关系，不严重。。。怎么突然就转成了swine flu vaccine有serious threat？后面的link实在太长了，就偷懒吧。
“Thimerosal has been gradually removed from vaccines since 1999, however it is still present in some vaccinations, including virtually all flu shots. During the review, medical experts discussed the results from a study that showed urinary mercury concentrations were six times higher in children with autism, as opposed to normal-age/vaccine matched controls. They also said that they found evidence that suggested the link between thimerosal-containing vaccines and autism had a higher risk than that between lung cancer and smoking cigarettes. ”什么叫“virtually all flu shots ”？事实上flu vaccine有两种，一种是multi-dose vial，一种是single-dose vial。Multi-dose的确实含有thimerosal，而single-dose的没有。这个大家都已经知道了。而给孩子和孕妇用的都是single-dose vial的。文中提到的study也没有出处。想想香烟工业曾经是多么繁荣昌盛的行业，在被揭露引发肺癌之后现在是老鼠过街。疫苗行业到今天没有被打倒，正是反证了其科学的价值。
文章中这样那样的错误，误导，暗示，毫无根据的谣言实在是太多了，几乎句句都靠不住（少数几句还可以）。这样的文章其实很容易分辨真伪。大家要学会分析，透过现象看本质，学会使用自己的头脑，而不是使用别人的语言来分析问题，解决问题。科学需要理性，不要被耸人听闻给忽悠了。
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